Financing gaps for Pakistan's contraceptive prevalence goals: Analyses using the Guttmacher adding-it-up methodology.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the paper is to identify levels of and gaps in family planning financing in Pakistan and to assess whether current funding is sufficient to meet national and FP2030 goals to increase contraceptive use to 60% by 2030. STUDY DESIGN: We estimate the cost of family planning services nationally and by province based on the Essential Services Package and WHO/UNFPA cost by applying the existing Guttmacher global Adding-It-Up methodology. Additional data are also analyzed to assess trends in expenditures on family planning between 2017 and 2021. RESULTS: The estimated cost of family planning services provided in Pakistan in 2017 was US$81 million, equivalent to US$0.38 per capita. The estimated gap in costs to provide contraceptive services to the additional 8.6 million women with unmet need for modern contraception was US$93 million. While we found evidence of an upward trend in overall government expenditure on family planning services over the period 2017-21, the pace of increase was slow and uneven across regions. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence highlights the persistent inadequacy of financing for contraceptive services especially if Pakistan intends to achieve its ambitious national and FP2030 goal of increasing contraceptive prevalence to 60% by 2030. IMPLICATIONS: A doubling of current funding for contraceptive services is required in Pakistan. Additional financing needs to be directed towards the poorest women with unmet need to avoid unintended pregnancies and to improve equity in reproductive health outcomes.

Impacts of COVID-19 on contraceptive and abortion services in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionate effects on people living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), exacerbating weak health systems. We conducted a scoping review to identify, map, and synthesise studies in LMICs that measured the impact of COVID-19 on demand for, provision of, and access to contraceptive and abortion-related services, and reproductive outcomes of these impacts. Using a pre-established protocol, we searched bibliographic databases (December 2019-February 2021) and key grey literature sources (December 2019-April 2021). Of 71 studies included, the majority (61%) were not peer-reviewed, and 42% were based in Africa, 35% in Asia, 17% were multi-region, and 6% were in Latin America and the Caribbean. Most studies were based on data through June 2020. The magnitude of contraceptive service-related impacts varied widely across 55 studies (24 of which also included information on abortion). Nearly all studies assessing changes over time to contraceptive service provision noted declines of varying magnitude, but severe disruptions were relatively uncommon or of limited duration. Twenty-six studies addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on abortion and postabortion care (PAC). Overall, studies found increases in demand, reductions in provision and increases in barriers to accessing these services. The use of abortion services declined, but the use of PAC was more mixed with some studies finding increases compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. The impacts of COVID-19 varied substantially, including the country context, health service, and population studied. Continued monitoring is needed to assess impacts on these key health services, as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves.

Key drivers of fertility levels and differentials in India, at the national, state and population subgroup levels, 2015-2016: An application of Bongaarts' proximate determinants model.

OBJECTIVES: The transition to small family size is at an advanced phase in India, with a national TFR of 2.2 in 2015-16. This paper examines the roles of four key determinants of fertility-marriage, contraception, abortion and postpartum infecundability-for India, all 29 states and population subgroups. METHODS: Data from the most recent available national survey, the National Family Health Survey, conducted in 2015-16, were used. The Bongaarts proximate determinants model was used to quantify the roles of the four key factors that largely determine fertility. Methodological contributions of this analysis are: adaptations of the model to the Indian context; measurement of the role of abortion; and provision of estimates for sub-groups nationally and by state: age, education, residence, wealth status and caste. RESULTS: Nationally, marriage is the most important determinant of the reduction in fertility from the biological maximum, contributing 36%, followed by contraception and abortion, contributing 24% and 23% respectively, and post-partum infecundability contributed 16%. This national pattern of contributions characterizes most states and subgroups. Abortion makes a larger contribution than contraception among young women and better educated women. Findings suggest that sterility and infertility play a greater than average role in Southern states; marriage practices in some Northeastern states; and male migration for less-educated women. The absence of stronger relationships between the key proximate fertility determinants and geography or socio-economic status suggests that as family size declined, the role of these determinants is increasingly homogenous. CONCLUSIONS: Findings argue for improvements across all states and subgroups, in provision of contraceptive care and safe abortion services, given the importance of these mechanisms for implementing fertility preferences. In-depth studies are needed to identify policy and program needs that depend on the barriers and vulnerabilities that exist in specific areas and population groups.

Global Developments in Laws on Induced Abortion: 2008-2019.

CONTEXT: Evidence shows that laws that restrict abortion do not eliminate its practice, but instead result in women having clandestine abortions, which are likely to be unsafe. It is important to periodically assess changes in the legal status of abortion around the world. METHODS: The criteria for legal abortion as of 2019 for 199 countries and territories were used to distribute them along a continuum of six mutually exclusive categories, from prohibited to permitted without restriction as to reason. The three most common additional legal grounds that fall outside of this continuum-rape, incest and fetal anomaly-were also quantified. Patterns by region and per capita gross national income were examined. Changes resulting from law reform and judicial decisions since 2008 were assessed, as were changes in policies and guidelines that affect access. RESULTS: Legality correlated positively with income: The proportions of countries in the two most-liberal categories rose uniformly with gross national income. From 2008 to 2019,27 countries expanded the number of legal grounds for abortion; of those, 21 advanced to another legality category, and six added at least one of the most common additional legal grounds. Reform resulted from a range of strategies, generally involving multiple stakeholders and calls for compliance with international human rights norms. CONCLUSIONS: The global trend toward liberalization continued over the past decade; however, even greater progress is needed to guarantee all women's right to legal abortion and to ensure adequate access to safe services in all countries.

RESUMEN Contexto: La evidencia muestra que las leyes que restringen el aborto no eliminan su práctica, sino que dan como resultado que las mujeres se sometan a abortos clandestinos, que probablemente no sean seguros. Es importante evaluar periódicamente los cambios en la situación legal del aborto en todo el mundo. Métodos: Se utilizaron los criterios que definen el aborto legal aplicados en 199 países y territorios a partir de 2019 para distribuirlos a lo largo de un continuo de seis categorías mutuamente excluyentes, desde prohibido totalmente hasta permitido sin restricción en cuanto a razón. También se cuantificaron las tres causales legales adicionales más comunes que caen fuera de este continuo: violación, incesto y anomalía fetal. Se examinaron los patrones por región y el ingreso nacional bruto per cápita. Se evaluaron los cambios resultantes de la reforma legal y las decisiones judiciales a partir de 2008, así como los cambios en las políticas y lineamientos que afectan el acceso a los servicios. Resultados: La legalidad se correlacionó positivamente con el ingreso: las proporciones de países en las dos categorías más liberales aumentaron uniformemente con el INB. De 2008 a 2019, 27 países ampliaron el número de causales legales para el aborto; de ellos, 21 avanzaron a otra categoría de legalidad y seis agregaron al menos una de las causales legales adicionales más comunes. La reforma fue el resultado de una variedad de estrategias, que generalmente involucran a múltiples partes interesadas y exigen el cumplimiento de las normas internacionales de derechos humanos. Conclusiones: La tendencia mundial hacia la liberalización continuó durante la última década; sin embargo, se necesitan avances aún mayores para garantizar el derecho de todas las mujeres al aborto legal y para asegurar un acceso adecuado a servicios seguros en todos los países.

RÉSUMÉ Contexte: Les données montrent que les lois restrictives de l'avortement n'éliminent pas sa pratique, mais qu'elles conduisent plutôt les femmes à l'avortement clandestin, souvent non médicalisé. Il importe d'évaluer régulièrement l'évolution de la légalité de l'avortement dans le monde. Méthodes: Les critères de l'avortement légal en 2019 concernant 199 pays et territoires ont servi de base à leur répartition le long d'un continuum de six catégories mutuellement exclusives, de l'interdiction absolue à l'autorisation sans restriction de motivation. Les trois raisons légales supplémentaires les plus courantes en dehors de ce continuum ­ le viol, l'inceste et la malformation fœtale ­ ont aussi été quantifées. Les tendances par région et en fonction du revenu national brut par habitant ont été examinées. Les changements survenus du fait de la réforme légale et de décisions judiciaires depuis 2008 ont été évalués, de même que l'évolution des politiques et des directives qui affectent l'accès. Résultats: La légalité présente une corrélation positive avec le revenu: les proportions de pays compris dans les deux catégories les plus libérales augmentent uniformément avec le RNB. De 2008 à 2019, 27 pays ont accru le nombre de raisons d'admission légale de l'avortement. Parmi eux, 21 ont progressé vers une autre catégorie de légalité, tandis que six ajoutaient au moins une des raisons supplémentaires les plus courantes. La réforme est le produit de diverses stratégies, impliquant généralement plusieurs intervenants et l'appel au respect des normes internationales en matière de droits humains. Conclusions: La tendance mondiale à la libéralisation s'est poursuivie ces 10 dernières années. Plus de progrès encore sont cependant nécessaires pour garantir le droit de toutes les femmes à l'avortement légal et assurer un accès adéquat à des services sécurisés dans tous les pays.

Estimating the Incidence of Induced Abortion in Java, Indonesia, 2018.

CONTEXT: In Indonesia, maternal mortality is high and abortion is restricted. Reliable information on induced abortion is needed; however, the difficulty of measuring abortion in settings where it is legally restricted and highly stigmatized calls for innovation in approaches to measuring abortion incidence. METHODS: The data were from three original surveys conducted in Java among health facilities, knowledgeable informants and women aged 15-49, fielded in April 2018-January 2019. Two methods were used to estimate the one-year induced abortion incidence rate in Java: the standard Abortion Incidence Complications Method (AICM) and a modified AICM. Each method was evaluated on the basis of data quality, and what is known about sexual and reproductive health indicators related to abortion rates, to determine which performed best in measuring abortion incidence in Java. RESULTS: Estimates of complications resulting from induced abortion from knowledgeable informants and the women differed substantially. The modified AICM produced an estimate of 42.5 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49, while the standard AICM estimate was lower (25.8 per 1,000). A comparison of the distribution of abortion methods used revealed that knowledgeable informants believed abortion was less safe than indicated by women's reports of their own experiences. Therefore, the standard AICM likely underestimates abortion. CONCLUSIONS: The modified AICM performed better than the standard AICM and indicates that abortion is common in Java. Increased access to contraceptives and high-quality postabortion care is needed. Future research should investigate the safety of abortion, especially with respect to self-managed abortion.

RESUMEN Contexto: La mortalidad materna en Indonesia es alta y el aborto está restringido. Se necesita información confiable sobre el aborto inducido; sin embargo, la dificultad de medir el aborto en entornos donde está restringido legalmente y es fuertemente estigmatizado, requiere esfuerzos de innovación en los enfoques para medir la incidencia del aborto. Métodos: Los datos se obtuvieron de tres encuestas originales realizadas en Java entre instituciones de salud, informantes conocedores del tema y mujeres en edades de 15 a 49 años y que fueron aplicadas entre abril de 2018 y enero de 2019. Se usaron dos métodos para estimar la tasa de incidencia de aborto inducido en un año en Java: el método estándar de estimación de aborto por complicaciones (AICM, por sus siglas en inglés) y el AICM modificado. Cada método se evaluó con base en la calidad de los datos y en lo que se sabe sobre indicadores de salud sexual y reproductiva relacionados con las tasas de aborto, para determinar cuál método se desempeñó mejor en la medición de la incidencia de aborto en Java. Resultados: Las estimaciones de complicaciones derivadas del aborto inducido según informantes conocedores del tema y según las mujeres, difirieron sustancialmente. El AICM modificado produjo una estimación de 42.5 abortos por 1,000 mujeres en edades de 15 a 49 años, mientras que la estimación del AICM estándar fue más baja (25.8 por 1,000). Una comparación de la distribución de los métodos de aborto usados reveló que los informantes conocedores creían que el aborto era menos seguro que lo indicado en los informes de las mujeres basados en sus propias experiencias. Por lo tanto, es probable que el método AICM estándar subestime la incidencia del aborto. Conclusiones: El método AICM modificado funcionó mejor que el AICM estándar e indica que el aborto es una práctica común en Java. Son necesarios un mayor acceso a los anticonceptivos y a una atención postaborto de alta calidad. Las futuras investigaciones deben investigar la seguridad del aborto, especialmente en relación con el aborto autoadministrado.

RÉSUMÉ Contexte: En Indonésie, la mortalité maternelle est élevée et l'avortement est limité par la loi. Il existe un besoin d'information fiable concernant l'avortement provoqué. La difficulté de mesurer l'avortement dans les contextes où il est strictement limité et fortement stigmatisé demande cependant des approches innovantes. Méthodes: Les données proviennent de trois enquêtes initiales menées à Java auprès de structures de santé, de sources bien informées et de femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans, entre avril 2018 et janvier 2019. Le taux d'incidence de l'avortement provoqué à l'échelle d'une année à Java a été estimé selon deux méthodes: la méthode AICM standard d'évaluation de l'incidence de l'avortement en fonction des complications traitées et une méthode AICM modifiée. Chaque méthode a été évaluée en fonction de la qualité des données et de l'information connue sur les indicateurs de santé sexuelle et reproductive relatifs aux taux d'avortement, afin de déterminer celle qui avait le mieux mesuré l'incidence de l'avortement à Java. Résultats: Les estimations des complications résultant de l'avortement provoqué obtenues des sources informées et des femmes consultées se sont avérées nettement différentes. La méthode AICM modifiée a produit une estimation de 42,5 avortements pour 1 000 femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans, tandis que la méthode AICM standard produisait une estimation inférieure (25,8 pour 1 000). En comparant la distribution des méthodes d'avortement pratiquées, on a constaté que les sources informées estimaient l'avortement moins sùr que ne l'indiquaient les déclarations des femmes concernant leur propre expérience. Il est dès lors probable que la méthode AICM standard sous-estime l'avortement. Conclusions: La méthode AICM modifiée, plus efficace que la méthode standard, fait état d'une pratique courante de l'avortement à Java. Un meilleur accès à la contraception et à des soins après avortement de qualité est nécessaire. La recherche future devrait se pencher sur la sécurité de l'avortement, en ce qui concerne en particulier les interventions autogérées.

Incidence of treatment for postabortion complications in India, 2015.

Abortion has been legal under broad criteria in India since 1971. However, access to legal abortion services remains poor. In the past decade, medication abortion (MA) has become widely available in India and use of this method outside of health facilities accounts for over 70% of all abortions. Morbidity from unsafe abortion remains an important health issue. The informal providers who are the primary source of MA may have poor knowledge of the method and may offer inadequate or inaccurate advice on use of the method. Misuse of the method can result in women seeking treatment for true complications as well as during the normal processes of MA. An estimated 5% of all abortions are done using highly unsafe methods and performed by unskilled providers, also contributing to abortion morbidity. This paper provides new representative abortion-related morbidity measures at the national and subnational levels from a large-scale 2015 study of six Indian states-Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. The outcomes include the number and treatment rates of women with complications resulting from induced abortion and the type of complications. The total number of women treated for abortion complications at the national level is 5.2 million, and the rate is 15.7 per 1000 women of reproductive age per year. In all six study states, a high proportion of all women receiving postabortion care were admitted with incomplete abortion from use of MA-ranging from 33% in Tamil Nadu to 65% in Assam. The paper fills an important gap by providing new evidence that can inform policy-makers and health planners at all levels and lead to improvements in the provision of postabortion care and legal abortion services-improvements that would greatly reduce abortion-related morbidity and its costs to Indian women, their families and the healthcare system.

Abortion service provision in South Asia: A comparative study of four countries.

OBJECTIVES: Nationally representative evidence on abortion service provision is scarce in South Asia. To inform improvements in service provision, this paper assesses the availability of facility-based postabortion services in Nepal, India (six states), Bangladesh and Pakistan, and legal abortion services in India and Nepal and Bangladesh (where the official term used is menstrual regulation or MR). STUDY DESIGN: The paper presents comparable indicators on three aspects of abortion service provision from representative surveys of public and private sector facilities, conducted over 2012-2015. Indicators cover three areas: (a) need for abortion-related care (total number of abortions and percent of abortions that are legal and the postabortion treatment rate); (b) availability and accessibility of facility-based abortion-related services (percent of facilities offering only one of the two services, percent which are public and percent located in rural areas); (c) quality of facility-based abortion care (percent of legal abortions using procedures not recommended by WHO and percent of women turned away when seeking abortion or MR services). RESULTS: The proportion of all abortions that are illegal ranges from 58% to almost 78% in the three countries where abortion is permitted under broad criteria. The annual treatment rate for abortion complications ranges from about 4 to 26 per 1000 women ages 15-49 across the countries and states covered. In India and Nepal, less than 40% of public sector facilities that are permitted to provide abortion services do so; in Bangladesh, the situation is somewhat better, at 53% providing MR. Across the six Indian states, 4-43% of facilities that offer abortion care are located in rural areas, disproportionately lower than the proportion of women living in rural areas (49-87%). About 30-60% of facilities offered only postabortion care and did not offer legal services in the three countries where legal services are permitted (with the sole exception of Tamil Nadu where this proportion was only 11%); of the remaining facilities, the large majority offered both services. Medication abortion is offered by the large majority of facilities that provide induced abortion and accounts for 40-45%, of facility-based abortions in Nepal and four of the states of India; in Assam and Bihar, this proportion was much lower (13% and 27% respectively). Invasive procedures that are not recommended by WHO are more widely used in India (up to 25-37% of facility-based abortions are D&C procedures; the large majority of this group are D&C, and a small proportion may be D&E, a WHO-recommended abortion procedure, that could not be separated out in this study because providers use the two labels interchangeably); by comparison, the proportion is much smaller in Nepal (5%). Between 22% to a little over half of facilities turned away some women who would otherwise be eligible for an abortion or MR procedure in Nepal, the six Indian states, and Bangladesh. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to increase access to abortion, MR and postabortion services, especially for rural women. Greater access to legal abortion/MR services in the three countries that permit these procedures would increase the proportion of abortions that are legal and safe, reduce morbidity and the need for facility-based treatment for complications. Broadening the legal criteria under which abortion is permitted in Pakistan, and implementing access under such broader criteria, is needed to achieve the same improvements in Pakistan. Ensuring that these services are of high quality and comprehensive-meeting WHO-recommended standards-is essential to protect women's reproductive health and rights. IMPLICATIONS: To improve access to abortion, MR and postabortion care in South Asia, all facilities (public and private) permitted to provide these services should do so, and should include medication abortion. Improvements in quality of care are critical: invasive procedures (D&C) should be eliminated through adherence to WHO's standards of safe abortion care and women seeking abortions should not be turned away because of providers' biases.

Provision of medical methods of abortion in facilities in India in 2015: A six state comparison.

Medical methods of abortion, MMA, has been legal in India since 2002. Guidelines stipulate that it should be administered by a provider or acquired via prescription. 1.2 million women having abortions in India use MMA acquired from health facilities [Singh, S., Shekhar, C., Acharya, R., Moore, A. M., Stillman, M., Pradhan, M. R., … Browne, A. (2018). The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015. The Lancet Global Health, 6(1), e111-e120. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30453-9 ]. We undertook a study of abortion in Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh in 2015 to better understand under what conditions and how MMA is being administered in facilities. The majority of facilities that provide MMA are in the private sector and located in urban areas. Most facilities offer MMA both at the facility and as a prescription, although some facilities only offer MMA as a prescription. A high proportion of facilities report that women typically take the medication at home. (Re)training providers in MMA protocols and counselling, increasing the number of facilities offering MMA, and stocking of the drugs would help improve women's access to MMA and the information they need to be able to use this method safely. Key Messages: In the six states in our sample, Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, 8% of abortions in 2015 were done using medical methods of abortion (MMA) acquired from health facilities. The majority of facilities that provide MMA in the six states are in the private sector and are located in urban areas. Health facilities in Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are comparatively better in their provision of MMA with Assam, Bihar, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh demonstrating poorer provision of MMA. There are many opportunities for improvement in the practices of MMA provision through improved training of providers, accessibility to the medications and better support of women using MMA.

Influence of Radiographic Positioning on Canine Sacroiliac and Lumbosacral Angle Measurements.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the influence of radiographic malpositioning on canine sacroiliac and lumbosacral inclination angles. METHODS: Using canine cadavers, lateral pelvic radiographs were acquired with the radiographic beam in a neutral position and then rotated 5, 10 and 15° to mimic rotational malpositioning. The focal point of the beam was then focused over the abdomen and again over mid-diaphysis of the femur to mimic an abdominal or femoral radiographic study. RESULTS: Five degrees of rotational malpositioning did not influence measurements of sacroiliac or lumbosacral inclination, but malpositioning by more than 5° led to a significant decrease in both sacroiliac and lumbosacral angles. Moving the focal point to the femur significantly decreased the measured lumbosacral angle. Abdominally centred radiographs had no effect on lumbosacral and sacroiliac angle measurements. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: When evaluating canine lumbosacral and sacroiliac angles radiographically, pelvic rotation of more than 5° should be avoided as should the use of lateral radiographs centred over the femur.

The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015.

BACKGROUND: Reliable information on the incidence of induced abortion in India is lacking. Official statistics and national surveys provide incomplete coverage. Since the early 2000s, medication abortion has become increasingly available, improving the way women obtain abortions. The aim of this study was to estimate the national incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy for 2015. METHODS: National abortion incidence was estimated through three separate components: abortions (medication and surgical) in facilities (including private sector, public sector, and non-governmental organisations [NGOs]); medication abortions outside facilities; and abortions outside of facilities and with methods other than medication abortion. Facility-based abortions were estimated from the 2015 Health Facilities Survey of 4001 public and private health facilities in six Indian states (Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh) and from NGO clinic data. National medication abortion drug sales and distribution data were obtained from IMS Health and six principal NGOs (DKT International, Marie Stopes International, Population Services International, World Health Partners, Parivar Seva Santha, and Janani). We estimated the total number of abortions that are not medication abortions and are not obtained in a health facility setting through an indirect technique based on findings from community-based study findings in two states in 2009, with adjustments to account for the rapid increase in use of medication abortion since 2009. The total number of women of reproductive age and livebirth data were obtained from UN population data, and the proportion of births from unplanned pregnancies and data on contraceptive use and need were obtained from the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey-4. FINDINGS: We estimate that 15·6 million abortions (14·1 million-17·3 million) occurred in India in 2015. The abortion rate was 47·0 abortions (42·2-52·1) per 1000 women aged 15-49 years. 3·4 million abortions (22%) were obtained in health facilities, 11·5 million (73%) abortions were medication abortions done outside of health facilities, and 0·8 million (5%) abortions were done outside of health facilities using methods other than medication abortion. Overall, 12·7 million (81%) abortions were medication abortions, 2·2 million (14%) abortions were surgical, and 0·8 million (5%) abortions were done through other methods that were probably unsafe. We estimated 48·1 million pregnancies, a rate of 144·7 pregnancies per 1000 women aged 15-49 years, and a rate of 70·1 unintended pregnancies per 1000 women aged 15-49 years. Abortions accounted for one third of all pregnancies, and nearly half of pregnancies were unintended. INTERPRETATION: Health facilities can have a greater role in abortion service provision and provide quality care, including post-abortion contraception. Interventions are needed to expand access to abortion services through better equipping existing facilities, ensuring adequate and continuous supplies of medication abortion drugs, and by increasing the number of trained providers. In view of how many women rely on self-administration of medication abortion drugs, interventions are needed to provide women with accurate information on these drugs and follow-up care when needed. Research is needed to test interventions that improve knowledge and practice in providing medication abortion, and the Indian Government at the national and state level needs to prioritise improving policies and practice to increase access to comprehensive abortion care and quality contraceptive services that prevent unintended pregnancy. FUNDING: Government of UK Department for International Development (until 2015), the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Ford Foundation.

Global, regional, and subregional classification of abortions by safety, 2010-14: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates of unsafe abortions have been produced for 1995, 2003, and 2008. However, reconceptualisation of the framework and methods for estimating abortion safety is needed owing to the increased availability of simple methods for safe abortion (eg, medical abortion), the increasingly widespread use of misoprostol outside formal health systems in contexts where abortion is legally restricted, and the need to account for the multiple factors that affect abortion safety. METHODS: We used all available empirical data on abortion methods, providers, and settings, and factors affecting safety as covariates within a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the global, regional, and subregional distributions of abortion by safety categories. We used a three-tiered categorisation based on the WHO definition of unsafe abortion and WHO guidelines on safe abortion to categorise abortions as safe or unsafe and to further divide unsafe abortions into two categories of less safe and least safe. FINDINGS: Of the 55·â€ˆ7 million abortions that occurred worldwide each year between 2010-14, we estimated that 30·6 million (54·9%, 90% uncertainty interval 49·9-59·4) were safe, 17·1 million (30·7%, 25·5-35·6) were less safe, and 8·0 million (14·4%, 11·5-18·1) were least safe. Thus, 25·1 million (45·1%, 40·6-50·1) abortions each year between 2010 and 2014 were unsafe, with 24·3 million (97%) of these in developing countries. The proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in developing countries than developed countries (49·5% vs 12·5%). When grouped by the legal status of abortion, the proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in countries with highly restrictive abortion laws than in those with less restrictive laws. INTERPRETATION: Increased efforts are needed, especially in developing countries, to ensure access to safe abortion. The paucity of empirical data is a limitation of these findings. Improved in-country data for health services and innovative research to address these gaps are needed to improve future estimates. FUNDING: UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; David and Lucile Packard Foundation; UK Aid from the UK Government; Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.

The Incidence of Menstrual Regulation Procedures and Abortion in Bangladesh, 2014.

CONTEXT: Menstrual regulation (MR) has been part of the Bangladesh family planning program since 1979. However, clandestine abortion remains a serious health problem in Bangladesh, and anecdotal reports indicate that clandestine use of misoprostol has increased since the most recent estimates (for 2010). Because of this, it is important to assess changes in the use of MR services and the incidence of clandestine abortion since 2010. METHODS: A survey of a nationally representative sample of 829 health facilities that provide MR or postabortion care services and a survey of 322 professionals knowledgeable about these services were conducted in 2014. Direct and indirect methods were applied to calculate the incidence of MR and induced abortion. RESULTS: In 2014, an estimated 1,194,000 induced abortions were performed in Bangladesh (29 per 1,000 women aged 15-49), and 257,000 women were treated for complications of such abortions (a rate of 6 per 1,000 women aged 15-49). Among women with complications, the proportion presenting with hemorrhage increased significantly, from 27% to 48%. An estimated 430,000 MR procedures (using MVA or medication) were performed in health facilities nationwide, a decline of about 40% in the MR rate-from 17 to 10 per 1,000 women aged 15-49-from 2010 to 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Given declines in MR provision, more attention needs to be paid to building capacity, including hiring and training more providers of MR. Harm-reduction approaches should be pursued to increase the safety of clandestine use of misoprostol in Bangladesh.

Correction: Characteristics of women obtaining induced abortions in selected low- and middle-income countries.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172976.].

Characteristics of women obtaining induced abortions in selected low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2010-2014, approximately 86% of abortions took place in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although abortion incidence varies minimally across geographical regions, it varies widely by subregion and within countries by subgroups of women. Differential abortion levels stem from variation in the level of unintended pregnancies and in the likelihood that women with unintended pregnancies obtain abortions. OBJECTIVES: To examine the characteristics of women obtaining induced abortions in LMICs. METHODS: We use data from official statistics, population-based surveys, and abortion patient surveys to examine variation in the percentage distribution of abortions and abortion rates by age at abortion, marital status, parity, wealth, education, and residence. We analyze data from five countries in Africa, 13 in Asia, eight in Europe, and two in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). RESULTS: Women across all sociodemographic subgroups obtain abortions. In most countries, women aged 20-29 obtained the highest proportion of abortions, and while adolescents obtained a substantial fraction of abortions, they do not make up a disproportionate share. Region-specific patterns were observed in the distribution of abortions by parity. In many countries, a higher fraction of abortions occurred among women of high socioeconomic status, as measured by wealth status, educational attainment, and urban residence. Due to limited data on marital status, it is unknown whether married or unmarried women make up a larger share of abortions. CONCLUSIONS: These findings help to identify subgroups of women with disproportionate levels of abortion, and can inform policies and programs to reduce the incidence of unintended pregnancies; and in LMICs that have restrictive abortion laws, these findings can also inform policies to minimize the consequences of unsafe abortion and motivate liberalization of abortion laws. Program planners, policymakers, and advocates can use this information to improve access to safe abortion services, postabortion care, and contraceptive services.

Contraceptive Failure in the United States: Estimates from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth.

CONTEXT: Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. METHODS: To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single-decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. RESULTS: Long-acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006-2010. CONCLUSIONS: These broad-based declines in failure rates reverse a long-term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements.

Integrating multiple data sources in species distribution modeling: a framework for data fusion.

The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of species distribution models (SDMs) to characterize patterns of species' occurrence and abundance. Efforts to parameterize SDMs often create a tension between the quality and quantity of data available to fit models. Estimation methods that integrate both standardized and non-standardized data types offer a potential solution to the tradeoff between data quality and quantity. Recently several authors have developed approaches for jointly modeling two sources of data (one of high quality and one of lesser quality). We extend their work by allowing for explicit spatial autocorrelation in occurrence and detection error using a Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive (MVCAR) model and develop three models that share information in a less direct manner resulting in more robust performance when the auxiliary data is of lesser quality. We describe these three new approaches ("Shared," "Correlation," "Covariates") for combining data sources and show their use in a case study of the Brown-headed Nuthatch in the Southeastern U.S. and through simulations. All three of the approaches which used the second data source improved out-of-sample predictions relative to a single data source ("Single"). When information in the second data source is of high quality, the Shared model performs the best, but the Correlation and Covariates model also perform well. When the information quality in the second data source is of lesser quality, the Correlation and Covariates model performed better suggesting they are robust alternatives when little is known about auxiliary data collected opportunistically or through citizen scientists. Methods that allow for both data types to be used will maximize the useful information available for estimating species distributions.